Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.017253 0.019537 0.022013 0.024896 0.028164 0.031754 0.035998
2025-08-24 0.013650 0.016796 0.020500 0.025186 0.030963 0.037860 0.046731
2025-08-31 0.011458 0.014920 0.019234 0.025010 0.032554 0.042090 0.055092
2025-09-07 0.010210 0.013928 0.018778 0.025582 0.034899 0.047246 0.064908
2025-09-14 0.008779 0.012463 0.017465 0.024768 0.035187 0.049568 0.071012
2025-09-21 0.007794 0.011467 0.016635 0.024454 0.036028 0.052596 0.078243
2025-09-28 0.006861 0.010427 0.015609 0.023709 0.036107 0.054456 0.083842
2025-10-05 0.006515 0.010206 0.015735 0.024646 0.038722 0.060214 0.095758
2025-10-12 0.006128 0.009876 0.015651 0.025229 0.040806 0.065299 0.107040
2025-10-19 0.005802 0.009603 0.015617 0.025867 0.043005 0.070708 0.119278
2025-10-26 0.005352 0.009084 0.015138 0.025720 0.043883 0.074015 0.128283
2025-11-02 0.004985 0.008665 0.014781 0.025733 0.045004 0.077784 0.138352
2025-11-09 0.004559 0.008116 0.014169 0.025275 0.045311 0.080249 0.146482
2025-11-16 0.004300 0.007837 0.013998 0.025574 0.046978 0.085226 0.159597
2025-11-23 0.003993 0.007442 0.013586 0.025395 0.047747 0.088636 0.170090
2025-11-30 0.003826 0.007288 0.013590 0.025976 0.049960 0.094854 0.186425
2025-12-07 0.003483 0.006772 0.012884 0.025149 0.049419 0.095837 0.192661
2025-12-14 0.003239 0.006424 0.012463 0.024830 0.049822 0.098642 0.202720
2025-12-21 0.002965 0.005994 0.011848 0.024074 0.049285 0.099540 0.208954
2025-12-28 0.002908 0.005994 0.012074 0.025026 0.052283 0.107740 0.231070
2026-01-04 0.002815 0.005911 0.012124 0.025617 0.054578 0.114680 0.251116
2026-01-11 0.002732 0.005843 0.012200 0.026265 0.057043 0.122161 0.272989
2026-01-18 0.002578 0.005610 0.011915 0.026116 0.057770 0.125999 0.287112